I’ve been thinking a lot about NFTs lately — not the hype, not the floor prices, not the Twitter drama — but the actual thesis behind digital art as an asset class. And I think most of the skeptics are getting it wrong.
The Picasso Club
Here’s the thing about owning a Picasso. It’s not really about the painting. I mean, sure, the painting is beautiful — but what you’re actually buying into is a club. A very exclusive, highly aspirational club that comes with perks most people can’t even imagine. Early access to the best emerging artists. Immediate clout in business meetings. A certain standing in society that opens doors you didn’t even know existed.
But here’s what nobody talks about — that club is also highly illiquid. Members don’t really communicate within the ranks. There’s no shared platform, no community, no real way to leverage your membership beyond the painting on your wall and the story you tell at dinner parties.
NFT art can be every bit as valuable. Even if they’re “just apes.”
We’ve Seen This Before
There’s a reason Dr. Barnes was able to buy 50% or more of every major impressionist piece of artwork in the early 20th century — because nobody else liked it. Philadelphia and New York literally laughed at his Monets, Renoirs, Cézannes, and Picassos. The art establishment thought he was a fool throwing money at garbage.
We know how that turned out.
I’m not saying every Bored Ape is the next Water Lilies. But I AM saying we may well be in a new paradigm, and I don’t discount that potential at all. The pattern is remarkably similar — a new medium emerges, the establishment mocks it, early collectors are ridiculed, and then the world catches up.
What Digital Can Do That Canvas Can’t
Here’s where it gets really interesting for me. The possibilities within the digital medium are so much greater than with traditional artist materials. We’re barely scratching the surface of what’s possible.
Think about it — with a traditional painting, the asset is static. It hangs on your wall. It appreciates (hopefully). That’s it.
With NFT art, there’s additional utility that can be layered on at later dates. Dress your avatar as the ape you own. Get access to exclusive events. Receive airdrops from the same creator. The art itself can evolve, can be interactive, can exist across multiple platforms simultaneously. Lots left to be imagined here, and that excites me.
The Froth Is Real — But So Is the Opportunity
Now, I’m not naive about timing. There’s lots and lots of froth in this market right now. Three million dollars for a tweet? Come on.
This year I think you’re going to see every A-lister and sports star release an NFT — whether as standalone art, gaming assets, or simply collectibles. The market will probably triple in value, but I’d bet we’ll see higher volume with lower ticket items being more successful than the headline-grabbing drops.
And yes — the “in” crowd determines value. But you know what? That sounds a lot like traditional art too. Always has. The gallery owners, the collectors, the critics — they’ve always been the gatekeepers of what’s “valuable” and what’s not. NFTs just make that dynamic more transparent.
The Macro Picture Worries Me
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the broader market. Crypto is tanking quite a bit as I write this, and I’m not really seeing much reason why it’s even holding its current support levels. I hate to be bearish — but I don’t know why we don’t slide quite a bit further from here.
The one thing I keep coming back to is institutional money. Capital that may have been cleared to deploy this year could pop in at some point and drive a rally in the other direction. Otherwise, I think it’s the same pile of cash sloshing around and wrecking itself.
This is also, frankly, a moment where the wrong policy moves can send an otherwise robust economic picture into a tailspin. Trying to suppress inflation artificially tends to backfire — it did in the 70s, and the conditions aren’t that different now. Crypto players have never witnessed real inflation and real rate moves. Historically, that’s bad for any cash-poor, low-revenue, non-tangible asset.
My Takeaway
I’m diving deeper into a couple of NFT projects at the moment. Some things will definitely fail — I have no illusions about that. But others may be the equivalent of early impressionist works, and right now they’re on sale at steep discounts.
The skeptics who dismiss ALL NFT art as worthless are making the same mistake the New York art establishment made about impressionism a century ago. The medium is new. The community dynamics are new. The technology enables things that weren’t previously possible. That doesn’t make everything valuable — but it does mean the blanket dismissal is lazy thinking.
I’m not telling anyone to go ape in (pun intended). But I am saying — don’t laugh at the people buying digital art just because you don’t understand the club they’re joining. History suggests the laughers end up on the wrong side of that bet more often than not.
